BTC Signal
High-caliber, low-noise. Most days the answer is hold.
Not financial advice
Green is the buy side, red is the sell side. 4 of 7 agree.
BTC · 1D
$68,946
Down 29% across this chart
Range $57,740–$126,198
The cycle view has no candle size, so this is the daily price. Nov 23, 2024 to Nov 13, 2026. The line is the close, and the shade is each candle's high-to-low range. The vertical scale is logarithmic, so equal distances are equal percentage moves. Prices from Kraken.
Favorable window
Several metrics lean cheap (4 agreeing). Mayer Multiple (below fair value); Price vs 200W MA (near cycle floor); MVRV Ratio (cheap zone). Favorable for gradual accumulation — not a panic signal. Context: major news in the last week — Russia’s Central Bank Clears Exchange to Open Bitcoin and Crypto Trading on Nov. 22 (bullish); Will stablecoins survive once the banks catch up? (bearish). News never alone changes the verdict.
Each metric scored from strong-sell (−2) to strong-buy (+2). Strong verdicts need agreement, not one outlier.
Mayer Multiple
0.98x
Below fair value · score +1
Price ÷ 200-day moving average. Extremes mark cycle tops and bottoms.
Price vs 200W MA
1.04x
Near cycle floor · score +1
Price ÷ 200-week moving average — the long-cycle support line.
MVRV Ratio
1.37
Cheap zone · score +1
Market cap ÷ realized cap. Best-proven on-chain top/bottom metric.
Fear & Greed
28
Fear · score +1
Market sentiment. Extremes often precede mean reversion.
Funding Rate
0.0100%
Neutral · score 0
Perpetual swap funding. Extreme positive rates = leveraged euphoria.
Optional leveraged setups derived from the same composite. Strict stops, predefined profit-taking, small size. Skip this section entirely and nothing is lost.
LONG · 2x
moderate conviction · R:R ~1.9 · risk ≤1% of portfolio
Several indicators lean cheap (composite 0.87). Edge is moderate — size small and respect the stop; this is not a table-pounding signal.
Entry
$71,300
Current spot
Stop loss
$67,022
6% adverse — hard order
Take profit 1
$77,004
8% move — close half
Take profit 2
$81,995
15% move — close rest
Liq. estimate
$35,650
Isolated margin approx.
Leverage can lose more, faster, than you expect. This is a rule-based illustration, not personalized advice. Never trade money you can't lose.
AI-filtered events only. Routine crypto noise is dropped.
Deutsche Bank activating Bitcoin custody for clients is an institutional adoption event beneficial to BTC long-term.
Russia’s Central Bank clearing an exchange to open Bitcoin and crypto trading is a major regulatory acceptance event, likely to positively impact BTC price.
MSCI's cutting of MSTR from indexes pushes forced sales impacting Bitcoin via Strategy's holdings.
Bitcoin facing back-to-back annual losses is a rare negative performance milestone impacting market sentiment negatively.
Deutsche Bank going live with crypto custody after a 5-year buildup is a significant institutional adoption signal benefiting Bitcoin.
Short-term holders moving $3.6B BTC to exchanges at a loss is indicative of selling pressure and short-to-medium term bearishness.
Stablecoin outflows and ETF Bitcoin outflows indicating liquidity drains signals bearish Bitcoin sentiment.
MSCI decision to remove Strategy (MSTR) from USA index forces index funds to sell, potentially causing downward pressure on BTC through Strategy's Bitcoin exposure.
MSCI dropping Strategy (MSTR) from index indirectly affects Bitcoin due to Strategy's significant BTC holdings; selling pressure from index funds expected.
Canaan considering selling more BTC for stock buybacks due to mining revenue collapse exerts selling pressure on Bitcoin supply and price.
Bitcoin ETFs bleeding $300 million amid tech stock declines is a recurring theme indicating sustained selling pressure on BTC.
India's financial crimes watchdog raiding crypto exchanges over illegal trades is a regulatory enforcement action, typically negative for BTC sentiment in that region though not systemic.
Strong signal crossings, major news, and times when 6 of the 7 charts agree. Repeated notes for the same condition are skipped.
Major event: Russia’s Central Bank Clears Exchange to Open Bitcoin and Crypto Trading on Nov. 22
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bullish Russia’s Central Bank clearing an exchange to open Bitcoin and crypto trading is a major regulatory acceptance event, likely to positively impact BTC price. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/russia-clears-exchange-crypto-trading News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Will stablecoins survive once the banks catch up?
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Stronger-than-expected US CPI may increase Fed tightening odds, major impact on Bitcoin price downside risk. https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2026/11/10/will-stablecoins-survive-once-the-banks-catch-up News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Solana's Jupiter Expands Beyond Trading With Token Baskets, Yield Vaults and New Portfolio
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish Marathon Digital Holdings selling 13,597 BTC for $1.1 billion is a very large on-chain sale, likely to pressure Bitcoin price significantly. https://decrypt.co/382836/solanas-jupiter-expands-beyond-trading-with-token-baskets-yield-vaults-and-new-portfolio News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: U.S. Treasury moves to cut off crypto exchange MEXC over $16 billion in alleged illicit flows
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish U.S. Treasury targeting a major crypto exchange (MEXC) over $16B illicit flows is a rare, high-impact enforcement action that could severely affect market confidence and BTC price. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/11/07/u-s-treasury-moves-to-cut-off-crypto-exchange-mexc-over-usd16-billion-in-alleged-illicit-flows News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Treasury Cuts Crypto Exchange MEXC Off From US Financial System
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish Similar to headline 0, this confirms a major regulatory event targeting a crypto exchange, likely causing negative BTC sentiment. https://decrypt.co/382758/treasury-cuts-off-crypto-exchange-mexc-us-financial-system News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: U.S. Treasury Cuts Off MEXC From U.S. Financial System Over Alleged $16 Billion in Illicit Flows
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bearish U.S. Treasury cutting MEXC off from U.S. financial system due to $16B illicit flow allegations is a rare, high-impact enforcement action showing strong regulatory crackdown, historically bearish for BTC. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/fincen-cuts-off-mexc-us-financial-system News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: What is TraderTraitor, the hacking squad behind the $6.3 billion Binance heist?
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish $6.3 billion Binance heist hacking squad named is a rare major exchange hack with large systemic risk and negative BTC price implications. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/11/05/what-is-tradertraitor-the-hacking-squad-behind-the-usd6-3-billion-binance-heist News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Bitcoin Fixes This? Paraguay President Resigns After Bank Lockout Hits 60% of Country
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish Paraguay president resignation after bank lockout covering 60% population is a systemic banking crisis affecting a country with crypto relevance – could impact BTC as safe haven. https://decrypt.co/382676/paraguay-president-resigns-bank-lockout-bitcoin-fixes-this News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: French Bank Credit Mutuel Arkea Confirms Cyberattack as ZachXBT Puts Losses Above $133 Million
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bearish Major cyberattack on French bank with large losses indicates systemic risk potentially affecting crypto markets and BTC negatively. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/credit-mutuel-arkea-hack-133-million News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Mercado Bitcoin hack continued hours after exchange said attack was contained, report finds
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Mercado Bitcoin hack continuing after claimed containment is a major exchange security failure, strongly negative for BTC. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/11/05/mercado-bitcoin-hack-continued-hours-after-exchange-said-attack-was-contained-report-finds News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by The Bank of Nova Scotia
Source: Fed Reserve Direction bias: bullish Federal Reserve approval of Bank of Nova Scotia application can affect macro liquidity and indirectly influence BTC price; as a Fed decision touching systemic banking, it is high-impact. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/orders20261029a.htm News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Binance Says $6.34 Billion Hack Began With Fake Job Interview
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bearish Binance $6.34 billion hack is a rare, massive security breach hitting one of the largest crypto exchanges, highly negative for Bitcoin market. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/binance-says-6-34-billion-hack-job News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin Freezes Deposits and Withdrawals Due to Ongoing Security Incident, Losses Estimated Near $40 Million
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bearish Same hack event as 24, reinforcing major negative impact on BTC trust and liquidity in Latin America. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/brazils-mercado-bitcoin-freezes-40-million News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Brazil's Largest Exchange Mercado Bitcoin Halts Withdrawals After $40 Million Hack
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish Brazil's largest exchange freezing withdrawals after a $40M hack is a major event impacting Bitcoin market confidence. https://decrypt.co/382341/mercado-bitcoin-halts-withdrawals-40-million-hack News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Live updates: Binance records $6 billion outflows after starting withdrawals, less then 4% of total holdings
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish $6 billion outflows from Binance after hack are significant and rare, creating strong negative pressure on BTC. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/02/live-updates-binance-records-usd6-billion-outflows-after-starting-withdrawals-less-then-4-of-total-holdings News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.