BTC Signal
High-caliber, low-noise. Most days the answer is hold.
Not financial advice
Backtest →Default stance
Nothing unusual enough to act. Mixed readings: Fear & Greed (greed). Default: buy and hold. Context: major news in the last week — BitMEX shuts down: perpetuals pioneer officially closes it doors after 11 years (bearish); US Probes Whether Binance 'Knowingly' Let Iran-Linked Trades Through: Report (bearish). News never alone changes the verdict.
Each metric scored from strong-sell (−2) to strong-buy (+2). Strong verdicts need agreement, not one outlier.
Mayer Multiple
1.19x
Neutral · score 0
Price ÷ 200-day moving average. Extremes mark cycle tops and bottoms.
Price vs 200W MA
1.27x
Neutral · score 0
Price ÷ 200-week moving average — the long-cycle support line.
MVRV Ratio
1.61
Neutral · score 0
Market cap ÷ realized cap. Best-proven on-chain top/bottom metric.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed · score -1
Market sentiment. Extremes often precede mean reversion.
Funding Rate
0.0021%
Neutral · score 0
Perpetual swap funding. Extreme positive rates = leveraged euphoria.
Optional leveraged setups derived from the same composite. Strict stops, predefined profit-taking, small size. Skip this section entirely and nothing is lost.
No setup — flat is a position.
No edge right now. Leverage without edge is just paying funding to gamble — the highest-EV trade today is no trade.
AI-filtered events only. Routine crypto noise is dropped.
Russia banning BTC payments while promoting digital ruble affects BTC adoption dynamics in a major market.
US federal investigation into Binance over Iran BTC use has meaningful regulatory risk implications for BTC ecosystem.
Confirmation of BTC bull run supported by data reinforces bullish sentiment.
BTC breakout amid Nasdaq records and falling oil on geopolitical hopes signals positive BTC momentum.
Nearly $1B BTC ETF purchases signal strong demand and positive market sentiment for BTC.
Coinbase’s strategy for post-quantum BTC custody signals institutional readiness and boosts long-term BTC confidence.
CME expanding crypto futures including Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap is notable for market development, indirectly supporting BTC.
Movement of decade-old BTC totaling $161M may indicate renewed interest from long-term holders.
BTC's longest streak since 2012 indicates notable positive momentum.
Coinbase offering USDC loans against BTC at fixed rate is a meaningful product enhancement supporting BTC usage.
Large movement of Ether from FTX-linked wallets to Wintermute indicates notable continued fallout related to FTX's legacy.
BitMEX shutting down, a major perpetuals pioneer, is a rare, high-impact event affecting BTC market liquidity and sentiment.
Alerts are rare by design — only strong signal crossings or major news, debounced for 7 days.
Major event: BitMEX shuts down: perpetuals pioneer officially closes it doors after 11 years
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish BitMEX shutting down, a major perpetuals pioneer, is a rare, high-impact event affecting BTC market liquidity and sentiment. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/09/23/bitmex-shuts-down-trading-after-11-years-leaves-withdrawals-open News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: US Probes Whether Binance 'Knowingly' Let Iran-Linked Trades Through: Report
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish US probing Binance for knowingly allowing Iran-linked trades is a serious regulatory/legal risk and major negative for BTC market. https://decrypt.co/378902/us-probes-whether-binance-knowingly-let-iran-linked-trades-through-report News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Binance probed by U.S. federal prosecutors for sanctions violations: Bloomberg
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish US federal prosecutor probe into Binance for sanctions violations is a major regulatory event affecting BTC sentiment strongly. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/22/binance-probed-by-u-s-federal-prosecutors-for-sanctions-violations-bloomberg News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Live updates: Bitcoin hits $85,000 as short liquidations hit $300 million in an hour
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bullish Bitcoin hitting $85,000 again with $300 million worth of liquidations in an hour is a rare high-impact event likely causing major BTC price movement. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/09/21/live-updates-bitcoin-rises-above-usd82-000-as-falling-oil-lifts-risk-assets News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Bitcoin hits $85,000 as short squeeze forces out $648 million of bearish bets
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bullish Bitcoin hitting $85,000 on a large short squeeze forcing out $648 million of bearish bets is a rare and major market event likely to move BTC price significantly. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/21/bitcoin-hits-usd85-000-as-short-squeeze-forces-out-usd648-million-of-bearish-bets News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Bitcoin's 44% gain in third quarter teases full-blown crypto bull run
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bullish A 44% gain in a single quarter is a rare, major performance indicating a strong bull run which historically moves BTC price meaningfully. https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/09/21/bitcoin-s-44-gain-in-third-quarter-teases-full-blown-crypto-bull-run News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Clarity Act, we hardly knew ye: We look at what was in the bill and what's replacing it
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Further analysis of the Clarity Act's defeat and replacement confirms the regulatory shift impacting BTC negatively, a major regulatory event. https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/09/18/clarity-act-we-hardly-knew-ye-we-look-at-what-was-in-the-bill-and-what-s-replacing-it News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: How the Clarity Act's Defeat Handed the SEC and CFTC the Wheel on Crypto
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish The defeat of the Clarity Act hands significant regulatory authority to the SEC and CFTC, potentially increasing regulatory risks for crypto including Bitcoin, which is a major event affecting BTC price. https://decrypt.co/378688/how-clarity-act-defeat-sec-cftc-wheel-crypto News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points. Bitcoin tops $77,000
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bullish Bank of Japan interest rate hike is a significant macro event; combined with BTC topping $77,000 may signal bullish momentum due to macro shifts. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/17/boj-rate-hike News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Senate Blocks Clarity Act, Likely Killing It for 2026
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Direction bias: bearish Senate blocking Clarity Act is a rare, high-impact regulatory rejection, historically produces major bearish BTC impact. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/senate-blocks-clarity-act News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Fed rate hike is about Wall Street, not inflation, says economist
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Fed rate hike affecting Wall Street is a major macro event that historically pressures BTC price downward. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/13/fed-rate-hike-is-about-wall-street-not-inflation-says-economist News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Fed, BOE, BOJ interest-rate decisions: Crypto Week Ahead
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: mixed Upcoming Fed, BOE, BOJ interest rate decisions historically cause major BTC volatility via macro impact. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/14/fed-boe-boj-interest-rate-decisions-crypto-week-ahead News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: Core CPI rose a faster-than-forecast 0.3% in August, setting up possible Fed rate hike
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Core CPI rising faster than forecast setting up probable Fed rate hike is major macroeconomic news negatively impacting BTC price. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/11/core-cpi-rose-a-faster-than-forecast-0-3-in-august-setting-up-fed-rate-hike News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: With Fed rate hike all but assured, here's how markets might react
Source: CoinDesk Direction bias: bearish Assured Fed rate hike is a major macro event with high impact negatively biasing Bitcoin price in short-to-medium term. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/11/hotter-cpi-complicates-fed-hold-as-warsh-s-preferred-inflation-gauge-tells-different-story News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.
Major event: AI Agents Just Slashed the Cost of a Quantum Attack on Bitcoin
Source: Decrypt Direction bias: bearish AI reducing cost of quantum attacks on Bitcoin represents a significant security threat, which could cause major bearish pressure if real risk materializes. https://decrypt.co/377925/ai-agents-slash-cost-quantum-attack-bitcoin News informs context; it never alone triggers a trade signal.